I was at last able to see The King's Speech last night, and with that brought my pre-Oscar viewing to a close. I have only seen five of the 10 best picture nominees, but as usual will not let that stop me from making a few predictions for tonight.
About the current Oscar format - while I appreciate the spirit and intent of the Academy in expanding the Best Picture category to 10, I really don't think it is worth it. While it is likely often true that there are more than five films worthy of consideration, I think the last two years (and likely more if we go back and analyse it) show that there are rarely 10. There are always going to be a few embarrassing inclusions in a list of 10 like this, a couple of films who's producers know they are only there because of the oddities of math and not out of any real popularity or likelihood of winning.
And so, some predictions:
- Best supporting actor - I think just about everyone in this category is excellent (I have seen 4/5). The smart money's on Christian Bale, but I wouldn't be upset if any of the others win.
- Best actor - the dark horse here is Javier Bardem, as likely not many people have seen the film. My prediction is Colin Firth, but would not be surprised to see Jesse Eisenberg get it (what a career changer that would be for him).
- Best supporting actress - I'd like to see Helena Bonham Carter win here, as I thought her portrayal of the young Queen Mum was very affecting. Jacki Weaver from Animal Kingdom is a real long shot, but also a good choice. However, it will likely go to any of the others, and I'd guess Hailee Steinfeld.
- Best actress - this has to be Natalie Portman. Although I've not seen it, I hear so much about the film and her that it seems likely. As an aside, not a strong year for female parts (again); the last strong year was 2006, when there were several people to choose from rather than a short list to settle on.
- Screenplays - original should be Inception, adapted should be The Social Network.
- Director - David Fincher for The Social Network or Darran Aronofsky for Black Swan - very different films and so could go either way.
- Best picture - if I have to choose from just the ones I've seen, then I would pick Inception. I could see it going to Black Swan, The Kings Speech, The Social Network or True Grit.
For me, the biggest oversights of the Academy this year include:
- Matt Daman for Best Supporting Actor.
- Chris Nolan for Best Director for Inception
- Legends of the Guardians for Best Animated Feature
- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo for Best Foreign Language Film (not sure which year this officially was so perhaps not eligible).
So we'll see later how well I do. Off to the Red Carpet!
